城市内涝风险动态评估与实时预警方法探讨
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蒋娜
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海城市水利事务中心，辽宁海城，114200
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摘要：全球气候变暖和城市化进程加快，极端降雨事件越来越多，城市内涝已经成为影响城市安全、阻碍正常运行的问题。过去的内涝风险评估大多用静态情景和历史数据做基础，没法匹配降雨过程的动态变化与不确定因素，让预警出现时效性不足、精度有限的问题。为了弥补这些不足，本文研究一种结合实时监测数据与动态模拟技术的城市内涝风险动态评估与实时预警方法。构建耦合水文水动力模型，整合高分辨率地形、管网数据与实时降雨雷达信息，完成内涝积水范围、深度与演进过程的动态模拟，同时接入物联网传感网络采集的关键节点积水与流量数据，对模型开展在线校正与数据同化，提升模拟精度与时效性。
关健词：城市内涝；动态评估；实时预警
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Discussion on dynamic assessment and real-time early warning methods for urban inland flooding risk
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Na Jiang
Haicheng Water Affairs Center, Haicheng Liaoning 114200, China
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Abstract: With global warming and accelerated urbanization, extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent, and urban flooding has become a problem affecting urban safety and hindering normal operations. Most past flood risk assessments were based on static scenarios and historical data, which could not match the dynamic changes and uncertainties of rainfall processes, resulting in insufficient timeliness and limited accuracy in early warning. To address these shortcomings, this paper studies a dynamic assessment and real-time early warning method for urban flood risk that combines real-time monitoring data and dynamic simulation technology. A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model is constructed, integrating high-resolution terrain, pipe network data, and real-time rainfall radar information to dynamically simulate the scope, depth, and evolution process of floodwater accumulation. At the same time, key node water level and flow data collected by the Internet of Things (IoT) sensor network are integrated to perform online calibration and data assimilation for the model, thereby improving simulation accuracy and timeliness.
Keywords : urban flooding；dynamic assessment；real-time warning
参考文献
[1] 李新星.化工行业安全风险动态评估与防控技术研究[J].中国石油和化工标准与质量.2026, (05): 26-30.
[2] 刘会景,董永昌.面向瓦斯异常的煤矿监测大数据实时预警技术研究[J].自动化应用.2026, (05): 130-140.
[3] 冯新乐.基于视频图像的城市内涝中行人风险实时评估研究[D]. 杭州电子科技大学,2025.DOI:10.27075/d.cnki.ghzdc.2025.000739.
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