大型水库调度中洪水风险评估模型构建及应用研究
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段汝姣
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云南浩洋建筑工程有限公司，云南昆明，650000
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摘要：大型水库作为调控流域水资源、防御洪涝灾害的关键性工程措施，其调度过程的科学性与安全性直接关系到下游地区人民生命财产与社会经济的稳定发展。本研究旨在深入探讨水库调度全链条中的风险源，提出一个融合了不确定性水文预报、水库调洪演算、一维及二维耦合水动力模拟以及多维度风险指标量化于一体的综合性风险评估模型框架。研究成果可为提升大型水库调度的风险预见能力和决策的科学水平提供强有力的技术支撑，推动水库防洪管理从传统的“确定性”模式向现代的“概率性”与“风险性”模式转变。
关健词：水库调度；洪水风险评估；不确定性；水动力模拟；风险量化
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Construction and Application Research of Flood Risk Assessment Models in Large Reservoir Operation
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Rujiao Duan
Yunnan Haoyang Construction Engineering Co., Ltd., Kunming Yunnan 650000，China
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Abstract ： As a critical engineering measure for regulating watershed water resources and preventing flood disasters, the scientific and safe operation of large reservoirs is directly related to the stability of people's lives, property, and socioeconomic development in downstream areas. This study aims to explore the risk sources throughout the reservoir operation process and proposes a comprehensive risk assessment model framework that integrates uncertain hydrological forecasting, reservoir flood routing calculations, 1D and 2D coupled hydrodynamic simulations, and multi-dimensional risk indicator quantification. The research findings can provide strong technical support for enhancing the risk prediction capabilities and scientific decision-making level of large reservoir operations, promoting the transition of reservoir flood management from traditional "deterministic" models to modern "probabilistic" and "risk-based" models.
Keywords : Reservoir operation; Flood risk assessment; Uncertainty; Hydrodynamic simulation; Risk quantification
参考文献
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